Stage-Aware Multimodal Popularity Prediction for TikTok Short Videos: Leakage-Safe Features and Modality Attribution Md Nadim Hosain, Md Soyaeb Bin Kuddus, Md Emadur Rahman Ekra*, Md Daud Ibrahim Abstract Popularity prediction for short videos supports content moderation, creator analytics, and platform research, yet many models mix information from different moments of